Fulton Associates

Monday, April 27, 2009

We Can Have Our Freedom...

The sad saga of the US banking system continues even if the convulsions of the past 8 months have seemed to ease. The investing environment seems to change as officials in government and at the big banks keep changing the rules. There have been several articles of late documenting the Fed and Treasury's role in the Bank of America take over of Merrill Lynch last fall. The evidence so far is quite damning and at the very least we know that there is at least one rat lying and perhaps all of them are rats.

A good summary of the latest can be found from Bloomberg of which the last line reads: We can have our freedom. Or we can have our systemically failure-prone financial institutions. We probably can’t have both.

I'm not sure our future is quite that bleak, but I'm also not ready to call the bottom of this market. For sure the economy is still contracting based upon employment and other indicators, but the question remains whether the stock market has seen its lows.

This kind of BS with ex-bankers calling the shots lends no confidence to the markets, and without evidence of real reform, I can't see a sustainable rally.

2 Comments:

At April 27, 2009 at 9:43 PM , Blogger Des said...

I guess the follow up to this post is whether investing in Cdn financials makes sense at this point. I think we've all been reading the press about how the Cdn banks have been more prudently managed and how our central bank hasn't had to bail out any institutions yet. I know Eddie has been talking about the ishares Cdn bank index XFN. My only beef with this is that it seems to be cap weighted and 21% is the Royal Bank!

Maybe we could play the strength of Cdn vs US banks by shorting US via SKF and being long Cdn banks with XFN?

 
At April 27, 2009 at 11:39 PM , Blogger Junk Bonds said...

Delta hedging the Cdn/US financials. I love it! Not sure if we have enough funds to do it, but that's a good strategy to keep in mind. (I don't think we have the Short account to truly short XLF, for example.)
It looks like the recent resource rally has had its run, so I'm in favour of getting out of SLB and DE for XFN at this point.

 

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