Fulton Associates

Sunday, April 12, 2009

Wells Fargo and signals

Ever since this market downturn started, we've all been looking for signs of the bottom. There's been a lot of mixed signals, fake gov't assisted rallies, and lots of noise, but the news of Wells Fargo's profits based on plain old mortgage lending is the first truly good news for me. I don't want to go all CNBC/Cramer on the club, but I'm going to call the bottom on March 9! (recorded on the blog for posterity as a prescient call, or ridicule). We all need to make a stand at some point to make money in the markets. I am personally going to take on more beta and look for alpha sectors.

Up until Thurs, we were doing well with the QQQQ for GS/Lulu trade, keeping up with those two with lower risk, but then those high beta stocks really worked on Thurs to the tune of +10%. I think DE and SLB has (and will) keep up during the panic buying phase of the market recovery, but as I mentioned before, I think there will be new market leadership. So let's look for that.

2 Comments:

At April 13, 2009 at 9:31 PM , Blogger Des said...

I still don't know what to make of the market. So, you've called the bottom! You could have really stuck your neck out and made the call before Easter!

W.r.t. GS, we got Goldman Sached! The rumor number floating around yesterday was the second largest quarterly profit ever, but $1.8B wasn't.

Hard to know what to make of it with mark to market relaxed. Maybe the top 100 execs are taking deferred bonuses. That should account for at least $500 mil of that profit. Maybe some of it was the $12 B they got from the gov't, oops i mean AIG. Maybe they hedged their bets by shorting AIG. Now wouldn't that be something?

Are we still selling SLB into the rally? Advise on price. There seems to be some resistance at $50 looking at the chart.

 
At April 14, 2009 at 1:25 PM , Blogger Junk Bonds said...

WFC reported on Thurs which was the last trading day. If I could read signals before they've happened, I'd be really rich!

Lulu has taught me to stay invested; upside volatility is just as swift as the downside. If we have something to replace SLB then let's do it.

 

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