Fulton Associates

Sunday, October 26, 2008

Deal Hangovers!

There was an article in the G&M business section last week that tweaked my interest. It was about announced takeovers that were trading below the takeover price because of the global credit crisis. The biggest case of this was/is BCE which has been much blogged about including here on Fulton Associates.

Of course the one that caught my eye was an oil and gas producer, Tanganyika (TYK), an oil producer in Syria. It has had an impressive increase in production this past year, but the more impressing thing is the buyer - Sinopec. This is a Chinese national refiner and petrochemicals company which is partially owned by China Petroleum and Petrochemical company. Did I say this is a Chinese national oil company already? Sinopec Group last month lost to India's Oil & Natural Gas Corporation (again state sponsored) in the tussle for Imperial Energy Plc (a Russian firm)

Bottom line is that even with the credit crisis, who else has the cash to make a modest $2 billion acquisition?

TYK was trading at $26 a day prior to the takeover bid. The bid is for $31.50. On Friday Oct. 24, it closed at $23.98. This is a 31% upside!

It has been well reported that Chinese companies have been buying up resource assets throughout the world to secure supplies for their growing domestic economy. While nothing is risk free, the board of directors of TYK unanimously support this deal and other insiders and officers of the company have signed on to a lock up agreement with Sinopec that represents 16% of the outstanding shares.

Please tell me why I shouldn't back up the proverbial truck and load up!

4 Comments:

At October 28, 2008 at 3:38 PM , Blogger Junk Bonds said...

I saw this in G&M blog by Andrew Willis:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/blogs/streetwise

OMERS cuts Teranet bid because it can.

I have no doubt if OMERS can do it, then Sinopec can do it too.

 
At October 28, 2008 at 8:52 PM , Blogger Des said...

Yes in this climate anything can happen and Sinopec could walk. I'm betting they don't because of other bidders. Apparently the Indian national oil company was the other bidder. W.r.t. Teranet, even their board thinks there aren't any 'white knights' so the OMERS move is perfectly rational. I don't get the BCE deal though, because they have a consortium of lenders and I find it hard to believe they have everyone onside on this deal.

 
At October 30, 2008 at 10:53 AM , Blogger Junk Bonds said...

The BCE deal is a whole other story. Ever since they reaffirmed the deal in July, the stock had been trading around $40. Then in mid-Sept when all hell broke loose in the credit markets, the stock has been bouncing in the mid-$30's. With the recent thawing of the credit markets, the stock has been creeping back up, but there still seems to be some healthy skepticism that the deal will close without a hiccup on Dec 11.

 
At October 30, 2008 at 11:51 AM , Blogger Junk Bonds said...

Oddly enough, I heard somewhere the weakening Cdn$ may have saved the deal, since some US lenders may look to take advantage of the stronger US$. weird.

 

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