Fulton Associates

Friday, September 26, 2008

WAMU goes under; RIMM misses

A few days back, I mentioned WAMU as a "tongue-in-cheek" investment; a weakened bank which may be saved by the gov't bailout. Apparently, the bailout won't save them; the FDIC took them over and the equity holders have been wiped out. MS down $13%, WB down 25%, etc.. This got me thinking, how much do we really know about any one bank? Even the pros are not sure how to value the banks. Isn't it safer to buy XLF? The bailout will save the US financial system, but there will be winners and losers. GS has the backing of Buffet but he got preferred shares and warrants.
Let me know GS or XLF.

RIMM missed estimates two quarters in row. That's a bad sign for a growth company. Stay away until they beat estimates two quarters in a row.

1 Comments:

At September 29, 2008 at 8:41 PM , Blogger Des said...

I only liked Goldman because of the gov't bailout pending. Now with no bailout, who knows? GS has insiders in many other places according to last weekend's ROB. Good ole Hank Paulson is the ex-CEO and will be finished at the Treasury department (with or without a bailout) for exactly 3.5 more months. Good chance he'll be back at his old company armed with ways to milk the gov't coffers.

Specific to GS, who really knows if they have some toxic level 3 assets hiding. WM and WB were waist deep is the shit and this was known. It was also known that as early as last summer GS was profiting by the credit crunch by selling this stuff short - the same stuff that months before, they helped engineer and sell!

I still think GS is the best of the crop. What's left of XLF is a very concentrated portfolio of C, BAC, JPM, and WFC.

 

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