Another Down Day
Wow. I can't remember a day when there was only one up stock on the TSX 300? Anybody care to take a stab at which one? Printer Transcontinental was up 1.7%. I guess they gained on the fact that one of their big competitors Quebecor World is now officially in receivership.
Today during the bloodbath I got thinking about BCE and its buyout. Could it really be at risk. The buyers including Teachers and Ontario Teachers along with some American buyout firms have pretty deep pockets. There was a rumor lately that admist Merrill's problems, that they would want to walk from their miniscule $375 million dollar stake.
The closing price of BCE today was $34.42, so if the takeout proceeded at the negotiated $42.75 a share, that would be a cool 24% upside! The risk is if the credit markets continue to cool and the deal doesn't get done. Now we'd be left owning a large but laggard telecom company with a yield north of 4% and likely a slow grinding recovery.
Any takers if we can get in below $34 tomorrow? The futures are pointing to a downwards open.

2 Comments:
Wow, I'm impressed you can think of a money making idea in today's down market! I just googled the BCE deal and there are blogs with rumours that there is a chance the deal could fall thru, even with the steep breakup fee. I always found the price movement to be more descriptive than predictive of the probability of the deal. Private equity is all about making money and if they calculate that the breakup fee is less than the cost of capital, then they will not hesitate to nix the deal.
After some due diligence, I jumped in with my personal account and I'm on the hook at $34 a share. Then today I found this blog about BCE.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20080124.WBstreetwise20080124110604/WBStory/WBstreetwise
It seems that leveraged buyouts and private equity may the next casualties of the credit crunch. Oh well, I'm going to have to time the exit as well as the entry!
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