Where to go, where to hide?

I've had a tough time generating new ideas as I try to figure out this post financial crisis market. At least I hope we're post crisis! There's always something lurking out there like toxic assets or sovereign default but cash isn't earning a decent return and as we've found out being in second place to Apple hasn't helped RIM either.

So where to turn? The macro data suggests that the US economy is slowing and certainly not growing enough to have a lasting recovery.

The bond market has been on fire (UST that is) and yields are pretty low probably because of fed intervention as well as the anticipation of a double dip. What's weird is that commodities have also had a good run this year which flys in the face of lower yields. Also gold is poised to have a tenth straight year of positive returns, so which way to go?

Ed has mentioned tech in general to replace RIM. For the record we still own 175 shares of Telus which has returned around 25% so far ytd.

The Fed looks ready to do QE again in an attempt to head off deflation. I think this has contributed to low yields as well as the recent surge in gold. The market is unsure of the timing of QE2 but it could come as soon as the next Fed meeting on Nov 3rd. I think as long as it is on the table and not yet announced the gold bugs will win the day. I see no downside to gold unless Bernanke takes QE2 off the table.

Are there other ways to play this monetization? I think all asset classes will surge once it is announced. I'm not suggesting QE2 is right or will eventually work but I think the initial reaction by all markets including stocks, bonds, commodities and gold will surge on the news, but all for different reasons! So yes there are other ways to play this. Stocks in general are more volatile especially recently. Although yields on UST are ridiculously low (2y under 0.5%) I think QE2 will bring them down even more - talk about a bubble! So maybe a long bond ETF?

I still like Agriculture as the way to play commodities as this ties in with the emerging market growth etc. As there is less faith in the dollar, the commodities will be bid up. This is why I think oil has held up so well despite the US economy not back to its pre 2008 levels yet.

My last thought has to do with the direct process of QE2 and Fed actions. Most of this buying of UST by the Fed is conducted via the Primary Dealers, a group of privileged banks that are generally TBTF that have been hand picked by the US Gov't - I mean Fed. Think Goldman or JPM. So if there is going to be an acceleration of Fed intervention, don't these middle men (otherwise known as fucking banker pigs) get their share of the pie? You gotta think that they will find a way to leverage the heck out of being one of the chosen primary dealers. So maybe we should get back into GS?

Interestingly Royal Bank of Canada was recently chosen to be one of these so called chosen ones and I think that this would be one of the more conservative ways to play this.

So decisions, decisions. Tech, Gold ETF, bond ETF, Ag commodities, GS, or RY?