Fulton Associates

Sunday, March 22, 2009

Forget Hope and Change, how about a short Financial Rally!?

In an attempt to time a financial rally so we can sell our holdings in GS, I have been watching the latest proposed bank bailout by Geithner and Co. with great interest. It appears that moral hazard is still alive and well and the powers that be haven't come up with a better plan. Maybe this is because there is no better plan, and that this mess of toxic assets is inextricable without bank failures.

To summarize the leaked details of the plan: the govt through the FDIC and Fed will loan private investors anywhere from 85-97% to buy these toxic assets off the banks books. This is supposed to create a market for them with some visible pricing. These loans unbelievably are backed by the very assets for which these so-called venture capitalist are buying, namely the toxic ones. If the toxic assets go sour, then the hedge funds aren't on the hook, the govt is. Doesn't this sound like gambling with other people's money? I hate to sound like a broken record, but isn't this moral hazard as egregious as what got is into this mess in the first place?

Paul Krugman doesn't like the proposed plan either. "Despair over financial policy"

What are the chances that the collective market thinks this is a good idea when it is announced on Monday? Will the long awaited plan give the financials a boost, just enough so that we can unload GS?

Talk around the blogs is that Obama is using what's left of TARP1 to fund this latest initiative because Congress is getting less willing to finance these shenanigans. He is wasting precious capital and political will on a plan that won't work. Maybe we should sell GS here around $100 and not waste our precious capital. $110 might be wishful thinking.

For the record, I think the suspension of mark-to-market will cause more of a rally temporarily than Geithner's plan will, but we'll see tomorrow. Maybe we should put a sell order in for GS at $101.

Thoughts?

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home